On Wednesday morning, the Buffalo Bills traded star receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick (via the Minnesota Vikings). Houston also received a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick in the deal.
The 30-year-old star receiver joins second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud and receivers Nico Collins, Tank Dale, and Dalton Schultz in Houston. But is the move worth it for Texas? And does it make sense for the bill to move forward? Seth Walder participated in the deal and provided a grade to each team, taking into account the impact on the field, the overall value of each side, salary cap situations, and the perspective of each team's short- and long-term prospects. Plus, Matt Miller examines the trades in this month's draft and what it means for each team.
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Grading the Texans-Bills trade by Diggs
The odd thing about this deal is that, under the circumstances, the Bills definitely need Diggs more than Texas. Houston now has a lot of wealth at receiver, as it already had an exceptional duo in Collins and Deal. Both were in the top 10 in overall scoring last season in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics.
The buffalo could not have been in a more different place. After trading Diggs (and allowing Gabe Davis to sign with Jacksonville), the team's best wide receivers are Curtis Samuels, Khalil Shakir, and McHollins. To be sure, the offseason isn't over yet, and this year's draft features an exceptional class of wide receivers. But even if the Bulls address a receiver in the draft, it appears they will enter the 2024 season with a question mark at the position. Additionally, it's worth noting that Buffalo's draft pick is for next offseason.
Although Buffalo is surrendering part of its roster, its Super Bowl window is wide open. The Bills will take a $31.096 million dead money cap charge, but that's not very significant. That amount is the sunk cost. The Bills will save about $19 million in Diggs' salary and roster bonuses, though that's less than his market value.
Ultimately, this deal will depend on which version of Diggs the Texans adopt. He began the 2023 campaign with five 100-yard games in the first six weeks. But he never had it again the rest of the season. Diggs' yards per route run dropped from 2.8 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. And his advanced metrics took a dive: His receiver tracking metrics overall score, which had been between 72 and 91 each season between 2017 and 2022, dropped to 52. The fact that his open RTM score has been above average (69, down from 83 a year ago) alleviates that concern somewhat, but whenever the 30-year-old catcher's game declines, we need The possibility to be considered. That is the only one that shows its decay.
A hopeful case for buffalo? Maybe you thought Diggs' game was going downhill and decided to cash out now instead of waiting a year and watching his trade stock drop further. But given Buffalo's roster situation (which now has the NFL's second-best quarterback without a dangerous wide receiver), it's possible the Bills simply decided they wanted to move on.
The aforementioned areas of concern in Diggs' numbers and his age (he turns 31 in November) are that he's not necessarily a home run for Houston. There are real questions about the caliber of player Diggs will be moving forward, and the draft capital traded was not uncommon, although getting back two late-round picks takes some of the pain away. Still, the Texans are firmly in their Super Bowl window as a rookie QB and have earned the right to pay Diggs below market value, perhaps for several seasons, so I certainly think so. They are putting their chips on the line.
